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LITERATURE REVIEW · VARIABLE MAPPING

Transmission channels

Each paper informs a testable channel or a measurement requirement. The cited studies motivate specifications; their coefficients are not copied into this dataset.

VARIABLE → MECHANISM → MODEL USE
Macro / market variableMechanism supported by literatureEmpirical use in this labMeasurement note
Federal funds / policy rateRate path changes safe-asset opportunity cost, bank funding and household intertemporal choices.VAR impulse; Minnesota BVAR; HANK-lite liquid/illiquid household rate channel.Use monthly FEDFUNDS or high-frequency surprise series; don't equate target-rate changes with exogenous shocks.
3-month Treasury yieldShort safe yield shifts the opportunity cost and convenience value of non-yielding stablecoins.VAR alongside stablecoin supply and peg deviations; policy-shock response variable.Use DGS3MO; keep frequency aligned and distinguish nominal yield from convenience yield.
CPI inflationInflation and policy shocks move nominal rates and asset valuations; nominal rigidities shape distributional responses.VAR/SVAR response; HANK-lite does not solve price setting.Use monthly inflation rate (e.g. log difference of CPI), not CPI index levels without transformation.
USDC / USDT peg deviationArbitrage access, liquidity and risk-off demand can produce asymmetric deviations and persistence.Endogenous market outcome in VAR; selected AR(p) diagnostics.Use bp from $1.00. Price only cannot identify reserve or redemption channels.
USDC / USDT supply growthIssuance/redemption reflects flows, but is endogenous to demand and broader market conditions.VAR endogenous variable; compare with peg and rates.Use log difference of circulating supply. Avoid interpreting reduced-form innovations causally.
Money multiplier (M2 / monetary base)Deposit substitution, reserve balances, cash preference and bank intermediation alter broad-money transmission.Include observed multiplier proxy in VAR; HANK-lite computes a transparent deposit-leakage sensitivity.Multiplier is an unstable accounting ratio, not a fixed structural coefficient. Include M2/base or construct consistently.
Household liquid-asset share / MPCLiquidity constraints and heterogeneous MPCs shape indirect monetary and transfer effects on consumption.Two-group HANK-lite scenario only; distributional inputs are assumptions unless user supplies microdata.Do not present the small calculator as a solved general-equilibrium HANK model.
Dollar / Treasury convenience yieldsDollar convenience and Treasury convenience can move separately; tokenized dollar assets show heterogeneous policy pass-through.Extend VAR with yield / dollar funding series when available.Use CIP basis or swap spreads for convenience measures; Treasury yield alone is not a convenience yield.
SELECTED REFERENCES

APA style

Links open the NBER working-paper record. Recent working papers are circulated for discussion and may not be peer reviewed.

  1. Ahmed, R., Clouse, J. A., Natalucci, F., Rebucci, A., & Sun, G. (2025). Stablecoins: A revolutionary payment technology with financial risks (NBER Working Paper No. 34475).
  2. Auclert, A., Rognlie, M., & Straub, L. (2024). Fiscal and monetary policy with heterogeneous agents (NBER Working Paper No. 32991).
  3. Bauer, M. D., & Swanson, E. T. (2022). A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification (NBER Working Paper No. 29939).
  4. Bernardo, A. E., & Welch, I. (2004). Liquidity and financial market runs. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 135–158. NBER WP 9251.
  5. Bordo, M. D., & Wilkins, C. (2026). Money and power: Historical lessons for stablecoins and U.S. dollar dominance (NBER Working Paper No. 35768).
  6. Caballero, R. J., & Simsek, A. (2024). Central banks, stock markets, and the real economy (NBER Working Paper No. 32053).
  7. Chernenko, S., & Sunderam, A. (2016). Liquidity transformation in asset management: Evidence from the cash holdings of mutual funds (NBER Working Paper No. 22391).
  8. Cochrane, J. H. (1995). What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy (NBER Working Paper No. 5154).
  9. Covitz, D., Liang, N., & Suarez, G. A. (2009). When safe proved risky: Commercial paper during the financial crisis of 2007–2009 (NBER Working Paper No. 15538).
  10. Dávila, E., & Schaab, A. (2023). Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents: Discretion, commitment, and timeless policy (NBER Working Paper No. 30961).
  11. Du, W., Keerati, R., & Schreger, J. (2026). Decoupling dollar and Treasury privilege (NBER Working Paper No. 35000).
  12. Faust, J., Rogers, J. H., Swanson, E., & Wright, J. H. (2003). Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high-frequency data (NBER Working Paper No. 9660).
  13. Gorton, G. B., Klee, E. C., Ross, C. P., Ross, S. Y., & Vardoulakis, A. (2022). Leverage and stablecoin pegs (NBER Working Paper No. 30796).
  14. Hortaçsu, A., & Yoo, Y. (2026). When cash wakes up: Inertia in institutional money market funds and the potential effects of AI disruption (NBER Working Paper No. 35954).
  15. Kaplan, G., Moll, B., & Violante, G. L. (2016). Monetary policy according to HANK (NBER Working Paper No. 21897).
  16. Kaplan, G., & Violante, G. L. (2018). Microeconomic heterogeneity and macroeconomic shocks (NBER Working Paper No. 24734).
  17. Lin, C., Prasad, E. S., Rabetti, D., & Zhang, C. (2026). Digital safe havens: The economics of tokenized Treasuries (NBER Working Paper No. 35412).
  18. Lyons, R. K., & Viswanath-Natraj, G. (2020). What keeps stablecoins stable? (NBER Working Paper No. 27136).
  19. Ma, Y., Zeng, Y., & Zhang, A. L. (2025). Stablecoin runs and the centralization of arbitrage (NBER Working Paper No. 33882).
  20. Rigobon, R., & Sack, B. P. (2002). The impact of monetary policy on asset prices (NBER Working Paper No. 8794).
  21. Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (2011). Fire sales in finance and macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(1), 29–48. NBER WP 16642.