MACRO-FINANCE TOOLKIT · USER-SUPPLIED SERIES

Multivariate dynamics

Estimate reduced-form VARs, recursive SVARs, and a Minnesota-style Bayesian VAR from an aligned CSV. Use HANK-lite for a transparent, low-dimensional household transmission scenario.

iInput data must be aligned and transformed to stationary units before estimation. Structural impulse responses depend on the stated ordering. HANK-lite is a partial-equilibrium channel calculator, not a solved general-equilibrium HANK model.

01 / DATA & SPECIFICATION

Import a monthly panel

Required CSV columns: date,usdc_peg_bp,usdt_peg_bp,fedfunds,inflation,treasury3m,money_multiplier. Include only variables available for the same dates.

Choose CSVNo file selected

Endogenous variables Lag order Estimator Impulse variable Response horizon Prior tightness

Import a CSV to estimate.

02 / IMPULSE RESPONSE

Response to selected shock

IRFs appear after estimation.

VAR: reduced-form one-unit innovation. SVAR: recursive Cholesky shock in the displayed variable order. Bayesian VAR: normal-prior posterior mode/mean with lag shrinkage; no causal claim without defensible identification.

03 / HANK-LITE CHANNEL SCENARIO

Distributional transmission calculator

Two household groups, liquid and illiquid. Policy-rate shock affects liquid savers directly; a transfer shock moves consumption through group-specific MPCs. Stablecoin demand is an explicit user elasticity assumption.

PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM

Policy rate shock (bp)Transfer shock (% GDP)Liquid-household shareLiquid-household MPCIlliquid-household MPCStablecoin demand rate elasticityStablecoin yield spread shock (bp)Required reserve ratioExcess reserve ratioCash / deposit ratioDeposit shift to stablecoins (%)

AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION RESPONSE—

LIQUID-HOUSEHOLD CONTRIBUTION—

ILLQ. HOUSEHOLD CONTRIBUTION—

CONDITIONAL STABLECOIN DEMAND—

MONEY MULTIPLIER · BASE—

MONEY MULTIPLIER · AFTER DEPOSIT SHIFT—

MULTIPLIER CHANGE—

Multiplier proxy: (1 + cash/deposit ratio) / (required reserve + excess reserve + cash/deposit ratio). A deposit shift adds to the cash-leakage term as a sensitivity assumption, not a structural law. The calculator is intentionally small: no endogenous wage, price, fiscal, or asset-market clearing. Inputs are assumptions, not imported NBER coefficients. See HANK references in Literature.